CICHY CHINA CONST BK
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CHINA CONST BK News
In "The Big Bank", BOC International: Pay attention to whether the People's Bank of China will cut the reserve ratio and interest rates, Trump's policies after taking office, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate discussions at the end of the month.
BOC International issued a report stating attention is on whether the People's Bank of China will "selectively reduce the reserve requirement and interest rates" in early 2025. On January 4, the People's Bank of China convened the 2025 work conference, proposing that the key work focuses for 2025 include "selective reduction of reserve requirement and interest rates", "maintaining ample liquidity and stable growth of the overall financial volume, ensuring that the scale of social financing and money supply growth matches the economic growth and expected goals for overall price levels", "keeping the basic stability of the renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, firmly preventing exchange rate overshooting risks", and "effectively utilizing the two structural monetary policy tools to support Capital Markets, exploring normalized institutional arrangements, and maintaining the Capital Markets."
Express News | Befar Group: The largest shareholder and HeYi Investment plan to increase their shareholding by 0.14 billion yuan to -0.28 billion yuan.
The three major indices of the Hong Kong stock market continue to rise, with Banks and Semiconductors stocks performing brilliantly.
① How do the Institutions view the subsequent trends of Hong Kong stocks? ② What is the reason for the significant rise of WUXI XDC today?
Research Reports Digging for Gold | CICC: The first interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China this year is expected to be implemented in the first quarter. The high dividend strategy remains the main line of Trade in China Mainland Banking.
On January 15, Gelonghui reported that China International Capital Corporation (CICC) published a report stating that regarding the People's Bank's emphasis on implementing a moderately loose MMF policy and utilizing various policy tools such as interest rates and reserve requirement ratios to maintain ample liquidity, CICC expects that although the pace of interest rate cuts overseas may slow down, there is still hope for domestic interest rate reductions of 40 to 60 basis points and a decrease in the reserve requirement ratio of around 100 basis points this year, with the first interest rate cut likely to occur in the first quarter. In terms of updates on bank stock perspectives, CICC indicated that the financial data from December last year reflected a trend of government leverage to support steady growth in social financing. Although overall Crediting demand remains weak, the debt replacement repayment of corporate debts activates corporate funds initially.
In the report "Major Banks", China International Capital Corporation lists the investment ratings, Target Prices, and valuation forecasts for China Mainland Banking (table).
CICC published a report listing the investment ratings and target prices for China Mainland Banking stocks: Stock │ Investment Rating │ Target Price CCB (00939.HK) │ Outperform Industry │ HKD 8.91 CMB (03968.HK) │ Outperform Industry │ HKD 53.6 ABC (01288.HK) │ Outperform Industry │ HKD 5.09 ICBC (01398.HK) │ Outperform Industry │ HKD 7.11 The report also forecasts this year's price-to-book ratio and dividend yield for China Mainland Banking stocks: Stock │ Forecast Price-to-Book Ratio │ Forecast Dividend Yield ICBC (01398.HK) │ 0.4x │ 6.7%
In the report from the major banks, the first interest rate reduction by the People's Bank of China is expected to take place in the first quarter. It is recommended to strategically allocate Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial
CICC issued a report on the CSI China Mainland Banks Index, stating that the People's Bank of China released financial data for December last year, which was better than expected. New social financing amounted to 2.9 trillion yuan, an annual increase of 900 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.0%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. New loans reached 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 200 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6%, slowing down by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The annual growth rates of M1 and M2 were -1.4% and +7.3%, respectively, with month-on-month rebounds of 2.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points. The report indicated that the domestic government is leveraging support for social financing.
Hong Kong stocks Concept tracking | Fiscal and MMF policies underpin the economy. Institutions are Bullish on the Banks Sector in the short term, which still has relatively strong value space (attached Concept stocks).
The central bank currently places a high emphasis on the stability of Bank Operations and the pressure on interest rate spreads, and the pricing balance of Bank Assets and liabilities may be one of the important considerations for future related policies.
Hong Kong Market Quick Look | Hong Kong stocks were strong all day! The Hang Seng Index firmly held above the 19,000 mark, with the Tech Index rising over 3%; Tencent Related stocks surged, with Weimeng up over 26% and Youzan up over 8%.
Network Technology stocks rose, with JD-SW increasing by 5.35% and MEITUAN-W rising by 5.02%; CECEP Solar Energy stocks climbed higher, with FLAT GLASS up by 5.57% and FUYAO GLASS up by 5.06%; Autos stocks advanced, with LEAPMOTOR increasing by 13.00% and XPENG-W rising by 8.47%;
Vice Governor of the People's Bank: This year, further reduce the overall debt cost of Banks to alleviate net interest margin pressure.
At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Xuan Changneng, stated that in order to achieve the goal of reducing the overall financing cost in society, the People's Bank will implement comprehensive policies, expand interest rate policy space, and continue to strengthen the execution of interest rate policies. This year, there will be further reductions in the overall cost of liabilities for Banks to alleviate the pressure on the net interest margin, better balancing the health of Banks' assets and liabilities with the reduction of financing costs in the real economy. Additionally, multiple measures will be taken to maintain basic stability of the Renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and to accelerate the replenishment of Banks' capital. The Ministry of Finance has recently clarified that it will support large Banks in replenishing their capital through the issuance of special national bonds.
The People's Bank of China: Last year, the net increase in social financing was 32.26 trillion yuan, expected to be 31.56 trillion.
The People's Bank announced preliminary Statistics, indicating that the total annual increase in social financing scale last year amounted to 32.26 trillion yuan (RMB), which is 3.32 trillion yuan less year-on-year, higher than the expected 31.56 trillion yuan, with a previous value of 29.4 trillion yuan. Among these, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 17.05 trillion yuan, which is 5.17 trillion yuan less year-on-year; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy decreased by 391.6 billion yuan in RMB equivalent, reducing by 171 billion yuan year-on-year; entrusted loans decreased by 57.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 77.6 billion yuan; and trust loans increased by 397.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2,400.
Hong Kong Stock Market Midday Review | The Hong Kong Stock Market is aggressively rising! The Hang Seng Index has returned to the 19,000 mark, and the Technology Index has increased by more than 2%; Network Technology stocks are rebounding strongly, with
Network Technology stocks are rising, with MEITUAN-W up 4.44% and KUAISHOU-W up 4.12%; Biotechnology stocks are also climbing, with BEIGENE up 8.82% and Junshi Biosciences up 6.46%; Autos stocks are all up, with LEAPMOTOR up 15.00% and YADEA up 5.60%;
UBS Group: Expects the banking industry's interest margins to continue to face pressure in 2025, with state-owned banks performing better in the short term.
The UBS Group research team expressed the view that the Banks will face challenges in 2025, such as further declines in interest rates and a decrease in ROE.
Express News | GRG Banking Equipment: The company has made important breakthroughs in the application of digital renminbi in cross-border trade scenarios.
Express News | Shunfa Hengye Corporation plans to repurchase shares for 0.25 billion yuan to -0.5 billion yuan for cancellation.
Banks' "Wealth Management Night Market" trend is rising again, and the incremental scale of bank wealth management may reach 2-3 trillion yuan by 2025.
① Wealth management companies and Banks are actively creating and establishing "wealth management night markets," breaking time limitations to meet more investors' needs; ② Against the backdrop of declining deposit interest rates, bank wealth management still has vast development space. In the next step, wealth management companies can continue to strengthen efforts in product innovation, channel innovation, and service model innovation.
The Ministry of Finance: Special national bonds will be issued to support state-owned large banks in replenishing their core tier-one capital. Relevant banks are currently calculating capital replenishment plans.
Liao Min, Deputy Minister of Finance, stated at the State Council Information Office press conference that the issuance of special national bonds will support state-owned major banks in replenishing core tier 1 capital. Relevant banks are currently calculating and refining capital replenishment plans, which will be implemented promptly. Liao Min emphasized greater efforts to support local governments in alleviating debt repayment pressures and enhancing development momentum. The 2 trillion yuan replacement bond quota for 2024 was fully issued by December 18 of last year. The issuance work for the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 has begun. This replacement bond policy has achieved significant results in three areas: first, the liquidity pressure faced by local governments has greatly...
Goldman Sachs' investment rating and Target Price for China Mainland Banking Listed in Hong Kong (table)
Goldman Sachs released a research report, listing investment ratings and target prices for China Mainland Banking listed in Hong Kong as follows: Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price (HKD) Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China (01398.HK) | Sell -> Neutral | 3.96 -> 5.62 Bank Of China (03988.HK) | Neutral -> Buy | 3.51 -> 4.91 China Construction Bank Corporation (00939.HK) | Buy | 6.07 -> 7.91 Agricultural Bank Of China (01288.HK) | Sell -> Neutral | 3.12.
Foreign giants are intensively raising the ratings of Assets in China, Hong Kong stocks and Banks are favored, how will the market evolve in the future?
Southbound funds are continuously performing large-scale "buying" of Hong Kong stocks. As of January 9, southbound funds have maintained a buying scale of over 10 billion for three consecutive trading days, with a total net buy of 39.139 billion HKD in the past three days.
Express News | Sanhe Piles: The controlling Shareholder plans to increase shareholding by 40 million to -80 million yuan.
Express News | East Money Information: Provides a maximum guarantee of 1.8 billion yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary Tiantian Fund.
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