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In "The Big Bank", BOC International: Pay attention to whether the People's Bank of China will cut the reserve ratio and interest rates, Trump's policies after taking office, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate discussions at the end of the month.
BOC International issued a report stating attention is on whether the People's Bank of China will "selectively reduce the reserve requirement and interest rates" in early 2025. On January 4, the People's Bank of China convened the 2025 work conference, proposing that the key work focuses for 2025 include "selective reduction of reserve requirement and interest rates", "maintaining ample liquidity and stable growth of the overall financial volume, ensuring that the scale of social financing and money supply growth matches the economic growth and expected goals for overall price levels", "keeping the basic stability of the renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, firmly preventing exchange rate overshooting risks", and "effectively utilizing the two structural monetary policy tools to support Capital Markets, exploring normalized institutional arrangements, and maintaining the Capital Markets."
Express News | Befar Group: The largest shareholder and HeYi Investment plan to increase their shareholding by 0.14 billion yuan to -0.28 billion yuan.
The three major indices of the Hong Kong stock market continue to rise, with Banks and Semiconductors stocks performing brilliantly.
① How do the Institutions view the subsequent trends of Hong Kong stocks? ② What is the reason for the significant rise of WUXI XDC today?
Research Reports Digging for Gold | CICC: The first interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China this year is expected to be implemented in the first quarter. The high dividend strategy remains the main line of Trade in China Mainland Banking.
On January 15, Gelonghui reported that China International Capital Corporation (CICC) published a report stating that regarding the People's Bank's emphasis on implementing a moderately loose MMF policy and utilizing various policy tools such as interest rates and reserve requirement ratios to maintain ample liquidity, CICC expects that although the pace of interest rate cuts overseas may slow down, there is still hope for domestic interest rate reductions of 40 to 60 basis points and a decrease in the reserve requirement ratio of around 100 basis points this year, with the first interest rate cut likely to occur in the first quarter. In terms of updates on bank stock perspectives, CICC indicated that the financial data from December last year reflected a trend of government leverage to support steady growth in social financing. Although overall Crediting demand remains weak, the debt replacement repayment of corporate debts activates corporate funds initially.
In the report "Major Banks", China International Capital Corporation lists the investment ratings, Target Prices, and valuation forecasts for China Mainland Banking (table).
CICC published a report listing the investment ratings and target prices for China Mainland Banking stocks: Stock │ Investment Rating │ Target Price CCB (00939.HK) │ Outperform Industry │ HKD 8.91 CMB (03968.HK) │ Outperform Industry │ HKD 53.6 ABC (01288.HK) │ Outperform Industry │ HKD 5.09 ICBC (01398.HK) │ Outperform Industry │ HKD 7.11 The report also forecasts this year's price-to-book ratio and dividend yield for China Mainland Banking stocks: Stock │ Forecast Price-to-Book Ratio │ Forecast Dividend Yield ICBC (01398.HK) │ 0.4x │ 6.7%
In the report from the major banks, the first interest rate reduction by the People's Bank of China is expected to take place in the first quarter. It is recommended to strategically allocate Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial
CICC issued a report on the CSI China Mainland Banks Index, stating that the People's Bank of China released financial data for December last year, which was better than expected. New social financing amounted to 2.9 trillion yuan, an annual increase of 900 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.0%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. New loans reached 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 200 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6%, slowing down by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The annual growth rates of M1 and M2 were -1.4% and +7.3%, respectively, with month-on-month rebounds of 2.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points. The report indicated that the domestic government is leveraging support for social financing.
