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Express News | Non-farm employment data confirms economic slowdown, further opening up space for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Wall Street comments on October non-farm payrolls: Will not affect the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut this month, the interpretation of the data is subjective.
Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal journalist known as the 'new Fed news agency', stated that the analysis of this employment report can be 'subjective', while most Wall Street analysts believe that the poor data is mainly due to the two hurricanes in October and the Boeing strike, but some analysts are also concerned that the job market is indeed deteriorating. Almost all analysts believe that this report will not affect the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed this month.
Various sectors in the usa assess non-farm payrolls: Can 0.012 million still do the "American-style downward revision"? Rate cut expectations are stable.
1. The release of the USA non-farm payroll figures for October on Friday was only a meager 0.012 million, far below the market's expected 0.113 million, and the market expectations had already taken into account natural disasters and strikes; 2. The even weaker endogenous trend makes the Fed's interest rate cut next Thursday a foregone conclusion; 3. Considering the non-farm data for the first 9 months of this year, there have been 7 downward revisions, and the October data presents a potential highlight of 'revised to negative numbers.'
USA October ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.5, hitting a 15-month low, with the price index soaring.
USA's October ISM Manufacturing PMI index fell to 46.5, hitting a new low since July 2023, below the expected 47.6 and lower than the previous value of 47.2 in September. The employment index has been below the boom-bust line for the fifth consecutive month, the price payment index surged by 6.5 points in a single month, production activities plummeted sharply, and inventories further declined.
The USA's October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 46.5, lower than expected.
USA's October manufacturing PMI is 46.5, lower than the previous 47.2, with a forecast of 47.6.~
What a shock! The non-farm payroll in the United States plunged in October. Will there be a sharp interest rate cut in November?
Double impact of hurricane and strike.
Express News | Canada's October manufacturing PMI rose to a 20-month high.
Affected by hurricanes and strikes, the non-farm payrolls in the usa hit a new low since 2020! But the Federal Reserve may choose to 'ignore' it.
Last month, the non-farm employment in the USA only increased by 0.012 million people, and the non-farm employment data for the previous two months has been revised downward.
Express News | The US Bureau of Labor Statistics: The landing and impact of Hurricane "Helene" occurred before the reference period of the household survey (unemployment rate) and the establishment survey (non-farm employment).
Express News | "New Fed Communications Agency": The actual unemployment rate in the USA in October increased from 4.05% to 4.14%.
In October, the non-farm payrolls in the usa only added 0.012 million jobs, far below expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, in line with expectations.
According to the statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in October of this year, the U.S. economy added only 0.012 million non-farm jobs, significantly lower than the revised 0.223 million in September and the market's forecast of 0.113 million job opportunities. This is the lowest employment growth rate since December 2020. The figure is also far below the average monthly increase of 0.194 million over the past 12 months. Employment in healthcare (0.052 million) and government (0.04 million) continues to trend upward. In contrast, the temporary assistance services sector lost 0.049 million jobs, while manufacturing saw a decrease in employment by 0.046 million, with a reduction in employment in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector.
Express News | In the USA, job growth in October slowed significantly, but the unemployment rate remained unchanged.
The unemployment rate in the usa in October was 4.1%, in line with expectations.
The unemployment rate in the USA in October was 4.1%, the same as the previous period, and is also forecasted to be 4.1%.
Analyst: The unemployment rate in the usa may drop to 4%.
On November 1, Guolonghui | Financial website Forexlive analyst Adam Button stated that seasonal factors will lead to a lower than expected unemployment rate, with an expected reading of 4.0% instead of 4.1%. So, will the dollar rise as a result? Yes. But I will not chase this rise because I am concerned that election-related risks may weigh on the dollar.
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 93.1% before the non-farm payroll announcement.
According to cme 'Federal Reserve Watch' on November 1st: the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering 25 basis points by November is 93.1%, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 6.9%. By December, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 5.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis points rate cut is 94.8%.
Express News | Institutions: If US employment data remains robust, it will support the Federal Reserve to make a slight rate cut next week.
Trump's surprising choice for the Federal Reserve Chairman: the inflation target should be set at zero!
The view of zero inflation target has triggered rebuttals from mainstream economists. They warn that doing so will lead the usa to the brink of deflation, which is a significant feature of the Great Depression.
Big oolong! cme Fed observation tool shows a significant rate hike......
A major unexpected incident occurred before the release of non-farm payroll data! The CME tool commonly used by traders to observe the Federal Reserve showed that there will be a significant rate hike of over 100 basis points in November...
With the return of the strong US dollar, how will the Asian markets respond? $6 trillion forex reserves as a shield.
The usd index rose by more than 3% in October. If Trump regains power and reignites trade tensions, the depreciation pressure on non-usd currencies may continue. However, analysts point out that Asia's $6.4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves give investors confidence that central banks in various countries have enough ammunition to counter the strengthening usd caused by the U.S. election. The continuous growth of Asia's foreign exchange reserves gives central banks in various countries enough intervention capabilities.
Non-farm payrolls revised significantly multiple times! What impact will it have on the Fed's rate cut in November?
Although the recent trend is in a single direction, the low response rate of the survey only means that the future correction of non-agricultural is likely to be greater, rather than indicating a confirmed correction direction.