What will happen on the first day of Trump's presidency?
Over the weekend, multiple significant pieces of news about Trump were reported!
Has the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle possibly ended.
In December, the non-farm payroll employment in the USA exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was also lower than expected. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" commented that the employment report shuts the door on a rate cut in January.
Liquidity "stress test": When will the Federal Reserve end the reduction of its balance sheet?
SWHY believes that the "normalization" of the Federal Reserve's unconventional MMF policy has a certain order, but it cannot be mechanically referenced to historical experience, as the opening of the interest rate cut cycle does not necessarily mean that the end of balance sheet reduction is just around the corner. The guiding principle for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is to change the state of reserve supply from "excess" to "adequate," which means that it should end the reduction before reaching a "shortage."
After the non-farm payroll report hit hard, Wall Street is "dizzy": Is the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts, or completely not lowering them at all?
① The unexpectedly high figures have prompted Wall Street Analysts to adjust their determinations on the USA Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; ② A relatively unified opinion is that there is no possibility of an interest rate cut in this month's meeting, nor is it very likely in March, with significant differences in determinations afterward; ③ At this critical moment, USA Consumer inflation expectations have sharply risen, and Biden has again demonstrated the White House's ability to stir up the Energy market before leaving office.
On the eve of a big drop on Friday, David Einhorn, who became famous for profiting during the Lehman crisis, stated that the structure of the U.S. stock market is collapsing.
David Einhorn stated that due to the rise of passive investing and investors placing more importance on price rather than value, overvalued Stocks become even more overvalued and undervalued Stocks become even more undervalued. This phenomenon distorts market value and plants significant hidden risks.
"Returning to the pre-liberation era overnight"! The U.S. stock market has erased its gains after the election, and the employment report worries Wall Street about a "double loss" in stocks and bonds.
Measured by the performance of the largest Global ETF tracking the S&P and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, the total returns of U.S. stocks and bonds have been negative for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak of negative returns since September 2023. Friday's non-farm payroll report raised concerns among traders about the Federal Reserve closing the door on this round of easing.