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CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index Newsroom
The biggest obstacle to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025: inflation and Trump.
The anti-inflation process has stagnated, and meanwhile, under Republican control, several Congressional agendas will further increase inflation.
Futu Morning Brief | Is there a signal to "pause interest rate cuts"? Federal Reserve officials speak out collectively; Elon Musk live streams at CES, discussing ambitious plans, Tesla's robots are set to expand production by a hundredfold.
HSBC expects the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index to rise by 21% this year and has raised its year-end target; Tencent has continuously reduced its shareholding in WEIMOB INC and UBTECH, cashing out 1.67 billion Hong Kong dollars, with WEIMOB INC responding.
Tonight's non-farm payroll report is coming! Signals of a slowdown in employment growth have emerged, and the health status of the labor market will soon be revealed.
With the recent continuous rise in the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields, the market is highly focused on the upcoming US non-farm employment data for December, which will be announced at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday.
Quietly, the Federal Reserve has given more attention to this "new" inflation Indicators.
Including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, senior officials of the Federal Reserve are increasingly focusing on a lesser-known inflation Index—the market-based version of the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index, which excludes a range of service industry data that its collectors cannot measure directly and must estimate. Currently, this Index is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, potentially indicating that the threshold for further interest rate cuts is lower than the market anticipates.
The outlook for Trump's policies is uncertain, the Federal Reserve is cautious, and this year the voting committee unanimously supports gradual interest rate cuts.
This year, the voting member and President of the Boston Federal Reserve, Collins, stated that the economic outlook is very uncertain, and requires a gradual and patient approach to interest rate cuts, expecting the number of cuts this year to be reduced to two from previous expectations; another voting member this year, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Schmidt, stated that if economic data improves, it supports gradual rate cuts; the Federal Reserve is close to the neutral interest rate, nearly achieving the dual mandate of inflation and employment, and further balance sheet reduction is needed; the 2026 voting member, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated support for further rate cuts this year, but the timing depends on the data, and action should be paused for now; the 2027 voting member, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, stated that it is the term premium, not inflation, that drives up long-term interest rates.
US December Job Cuts Rise 11% From Year Earlier, Challenger Report Says
Federal Reserve Watch for Jan. 9: Fed Speakers Emphasize Patient Approach to Further Rate Reductions
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for Jan. 9
Fed's Bowman: Inflation Risks Are Elevated and Progress Has Stalled
Fed Governor Bowman Says FOMC Should Be 'Cautious' in Considering Policy Changes
Fed's Schmid: Fed Close to Meeting Mandates, Needs to Shrink Balance Sheet
Fed's Barkin: Lack of Fiscal Space Is a Risk for Future Recessions
Minister Ma candidly stated that reducing federal spending by 2 trillion is an overly idealistic goal.
① Musk stated that the proposed "Department of Government Efficiency" in the USA may not be able to achieve its preset highest goal of cutting federal government spending by 2 trillion dollars; ② Musk emphasized in an exclusive interview that this is not an admission of failure in advance, and he can still help Trump achieve "epic results."
Fed's Harker: Fed Still on Rate-cut Path, Future Moves Driven by Data
The Federal Reserve shifts to "market-based" inflation Indicators, adding optimistic grounds for the economic outlook.
Including Chairman Jerome Powell, senior officials of the Federal Reserve are increasingly relying on a lesser-known price indicator - "market-based" inflation, as a basis for their optimistic economic outlook.
USA officials expect that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may begin early this year!
On the eve of leaving office, the Biden administration released another 0.5 billion USD in aid to Ukraine, to increase Ukraine's "potential bargaining chips."
Danger! U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the critical level of 5%, and a new wave of stock market sell-off may be coming.
The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is rapidly rising to its highest level since October 2023, approaching a critical threshold that has historically triggered stock market sell-offs, causing panic in the market.
The deep recession alert has been sounded! USA credit card debt unexpectedly plummets.
In November, USA consumer credit decreased significantly by 7.5 billion dollars, with unpaid credit card and other revolving debt balances plummeting by 13.8 billion dollars, marking the largest monthly drop since the economic shutdown triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis suggests that whenever there is such a sharp decline in revolving credit, the USA economy is often on the brink of recession or already in recession.
Federal Reserve's Collins: The number of interest rate cuts in 2025 will be lower than previously expected.
Due to strong employment data and persistent inflation, Boston Federal Reserve President Collins is inclined to expect smaller rate cuts in 2025 than previously anticipated a few months ago.
The bond market is making a scene, and US stocks may be in for a tough time.
The stock market may once again shift to a "good news is bad news" pattern......