Retail Management Association: The basic market factors remain unchanged, and the market has not yet shown signs of improvement.
Annie Lo, Executive Director of the Retail Management Association, pointed out that the main reason for the narrowed decline in retail data in Hong Kong in September is the low base effect. She mentioned that the current market conditions have not changed fundamentally, with general weakening in consumer spending among citizens, coupled with strong performance of the Hong Kong dollar and the influx of mainland Chinese visitors, the market remains weak without any signs of improvement. 70% of the association's members expect business performance to continue to decline in October. Annie Lo stated that among these members, non-essential items are experiencing a larger decline, while 30% expect business to remain stable or improve, primarily relying on promotional activities and new product launches. Members are still pessimistic about the performance in November and December. She pointed out that half of the members anticipate a decline in business in November, during the Christmas holiday in December.
The overall residential property prices in Hong Kong are still under pressure in the short term according to Knight Frank's Hong Kong Residential Market Report. The overall atmosphere and leasing in Hong Kong Island's Grade A buildings will gradually impr
According to the latest "Hong Kong Monthly Property Market Report" released by Knight Frank, this year's Policy Address announced an increase in the maximum loan-to-value ratio for all property loans to 70%. With the cancellation of all cooling measures in the real estate market, as well as lower interest rates, Knight Frank expects more high-income local and overseas professionals to enter the mid-to-high-end residential property market in the long term. However, it is expected that overall residential property prices will still be under pressure in the short term, despite recent interest rate cuts, as interest rates remain relatively high. Due to developers actively launching new projects to drive sales, the secondary housing market will continue to be under pressure. As for Grade A office space, in September this year, Grade A office space in the Hong Kong Island area continues to face challenges.
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Citigroup lists the floating rate debt cost of Hong Kong real estate stocks in Hang Seng Index, reducing 100 basis points for profit sensitivity analysis (table).
According to a report by Citigroup, the debt-to-equity ratio of Hong Kong real estate stocks has moderately increased. As of June this year, the average debt-to-equity ratio was 21.7% (compared to 20.5% in December 2023), with a borrowing cost rate of 4.42% for 15 real estate stocks (ranging from 3.7% to 5.7%). According to the bank's sensitivity analysis, a 100 basis point decrease in the floating interest rate debt cost (average of 69%) could potentially increase the average earnings for the fiscal year 2025 by 4.2% (partially offset by a decrease in interest income, resulting in a net increase of 2.4%). The bank has listed the effects of a 100 basis point decrease in floating interest rate debt cost on the 2025. degrees.