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[Brokerage Focus] citic sec believes that the demand for the cement industry is expected to be in a downward trend in the medium to long term.
Jingu Financial News | Citic Securities stated that the cement industry's demand is expected to be in a downward phase in the medium to long term, with future industry changes focusing more on the supply side. In 2016, the supply-side reform of the cement industry led to a significant decrease in new cement clinker production capacity, but the speed of eliminating outdated capacity was slower than expected, and the industry still faces widespread overcapacity issues. Since 2024, cement demand has dropped significantly, with the industry suffering severe losses. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised and issued the "Cement Glass Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures (2024 Edition)" in hopes of accelerating the clearance of over 0.3 billion tons of outdated cement clinker production capacity, reducing actual capacity from 2.1 billion tons to the designed capacity of 1 billion tons.
Conch Cement (600585): Expecting price increase flexibility to be released in Q4 24.
The company disclosed its 3rd quarter report, with revenue of 68.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 31.27%, and a net income of 5.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.05%. Attribution for the third quarter
Building materials cement stocks are weak. Conch Cement (00914) fell by 3.34%. In late October, the national cement market demand slightly weakened compared to the previous month.
Kingwu Financial News | Building materials cement stocks were weak, with Conch Cement (00914) falling by 3.34%, Huaxin Cement (06655) falling by 2.39%, Westchinacement (02233) falling by 1.6%, Asia Cement (China) (00743) falling by 1.26%, CNBM (03323) falling by 0.6%. GTJA stated that in late October, the national cement market demand slightly weakened compared to the previous month, mainly due to the northern regions entering the off-season one after another, about to start the winter staggered production cycle; demand in the southern regions remained stable in order to improve profits during the final demand period, continuing to drive prices up.
Conch Cement (00914.HK) received a JPMorgan shareholding of 1.6151 million shares.
According to the latest equity disclosure information from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 4, 2024, Conch Cement (00914.HK) saw JPMorgan Chase & Co. increasing its shareholding by acquiring 1.6151 million shares at an average price of 22.1442 Hong Kong dollars per share on October 29, 2024, involving approximately 35.7653 million Hong Kong dollars. After the increase, JPMorgan Chase & Co. now holds a total of 66,092,361 shares, increasing its shareholding percentage from 4.96% to 5.08%.
Express News | China Merchants Securities: Conch Cement Q3 profit margin improvement, maintaining a "strong recommendation" rating.
Research reports Mining | China Merchants: Conch Cement Q3 Profitability Marginally Improved, Maintaining a 'Strong Buy' rating
格隆汇 November 1st | China Merchants Research reports pointed out that Conch Cement (600585.SH) 24Q3 profitability marginally improved, with excellent cash flow. Operating cash flow net inflow for the first three quarters of the company was 10.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.15%. On the demand side, the strengthening of localized debt expectations helps release infrastructure investment demand, which is expected to bring performance elasticity to the leading cement companies. Considering the significant decline in cement demand, expectations for revenue have been lowered, but the effective implementation of cement price increases in Q4 is anticipated to support the industry's profit per ton and is expected to bottom out. It is expected that the company's profitability will be restored in 2025-2026, with estimates for the company from 2024 to 2026.
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