U.S. Treasury Bond ETFs
- 1010.358
- -5.429-0.53%
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF Declares Monthly Distribution of $0.2123
"Super huge upset"! Non-farm payroll employment in October increased by only 0.012 million, will the Fed cut interest rates next week?
The USA non-farm payrolls added only 0.012 million jobs, a figure possibly affected by hurricanes and strikes, leading traders to increase bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in November...
US stock market outlook: Non-farm data cools significantly! Expectations of interest rate cuts increase for the year; Amazon and Intel performance exceed expectations, easing the downward trend of growth tech stocks yesterday.
Apple's iPhone revenue turned around last quarter, but sales in China were lackluster, dropping nearly 2% pre-market; Buffett has continuously increased his shareholding in Sirius XM, raising his stake to 33%.
Tonight, be prepared to face extreme winds and heavy rain: in the most extreme case, will non-farm payrolls turn negative?
① As the United States presidential election is approaching in four days, and the Federal Reserve's November decision is just six days away, tonight's release of the October non-farm payroll data in the USA is undoubtedly expected to attract the attention of all market participants; ② The unpredictability of this highly anticipated non-farm report seems destined to be the biggest of the year; ③ In the most extreme scenario, non-farm payrolls may even show a negative value.
"Trump trade" and dealing with "Trump trade"
Analysis suggests that, in response to potential tariff shocks, it may be appropriate to adjust the exchange rates of the Renminbi to cope, and it is recommended to avoid some heavy asset enterprises. Potential tariffs may lead to a contraction in external demand, prompting a stronger focus on stimulating domestic demand, potentially elevating consumer to an unprecedented level in financial stimulus.
Futu Morning Post | Non-farm payrolls are in trouble tonight? Fed's 'hot ticket committee' takes preventive measures; Excellent stocks celebrate! Amazon, Intel stock prices soar after hours.
In September, PCE experienced an 'expected rebound', which did not affect the gradual interest rate cut expectation; usa White House economic adviser Bernstein: Inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
U.S. stock market closing | S&P Nasdaq posts its largest two-month decline! The technology 'Big Seven' all suffered losses, with Microsoft falling more than 6%.
S&P fell nearly 2%, showing the worst performance in nearly two months along with the Nasdaq. In October, the S&P and Dow fell by about 1%, while the chip and Chinese concept indexes fell by over 4% for the month.
The Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicators unexpectedly accelerated, prompting calls for a 'pause in interest rate cuts' in the market.
In September, the so-called core personal consumption expenditure price index (core PCE), excluding volatile food and energy items, increased by 0.3% from the previous month, and rose by 2.7% compared to the same period last year.
US Stock Market Outlook | The US core PCE annual rate in September remained unchanged from the previous month, with the three major futures indexes maintaining a downward trend; Increased competition in AI causing market concerns? microsoft, Meta shares f
Bank of Japan Governor: Will not be affected by political turbulence, will continue to raise interest rates if the economic and price outlook is achieved; Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio: Both US presidential candidates are unsettling.
Daily options update | Bearish 'big gift'! One put option on super micro computer makes a whopping 84 times profit; 'Trump trade' fizzles out? Trump Media Group's put/call ratio is 45%
Pre-earnings trading volume surged! The trading volume of Meta options nearly doubled to 0.6 million contracts compared to the previous trading day, with put options accounting for 60%. On the options chain, there is tension between long and short positions. The highest volume of call options, expiring this Friday with a strike price of $600, was 0.016 million contracts, with an open interest of 7 thousand contracts.
Be careful, will the Capitol Hill riot happen again? Is the dominance of the US dollar in danger?
Some Wall Street veterans warn that if a controversial election result leads to another riot, confidence in the US dollar and US government bonds may be pushed to the brink of collapse......
The Fed cut interest rates significantly, why did mortgage loan rates in the USA 'rise instead of fall'?
Analysis believes that, on the one hand, it is due to the surge in implied volatility of USA Treasury options, investors facing the risk of borrowers repaying early need a higher yield as compensation. On the other hand, the Option Adjusted Spread (OAS) of MBS is rising, investors are demanding additional returns to compensate for MBS risks.
U.S. Treasury Department's Major Quarterly Refinancing Announcement: Maintaining the same long-bond auction size and guidance unchanged.
The US Treasury Department maintains the quarterly auction size of its long-term debt unchanged, with quarterly refinancing set at $125 billion, and reiterates its guidance that there will be no increase in issuance size 'at least in the next few quarters,' all in line with market expectations. However, some strategists warn that this is the Biden administration's final refinancing plan, and the outcome of next week's election may bring changes to US debt management strategies and related personnel.
Futu Morning Post | Citigroup strategist talks about the 'Trump winning trade', a good opportunity to profit from the surge in US stocks; AI capital spending continues to expand! Microsoft, Meta both fell after hours.
USA Treasury Department's heavyweight quarterly refinancing announcement: Maintain long-term bond auction scale and guidance unchanged; the U.S. presidential election is undecided, the dollar hedging cost has risen to the highest since 2022; it will impact 3000 dollars next year! Goldman Sachs raises gold price expectations, stating that central bank demand expectations have quadrupled.
Has the era of "Trump trade" come to an end? Supporting a $2 trillion reduction in federal spending could lead to a decline in US bond yields.
According to the Securities Times app, last weekend, an important ally of former President Trump in the USA attracted widespread attention when he stated that if Trump were to take office again, federal spending in the USA could be cut by 2 trillion dollars.
US stocks outlook: The US 'mini non-farm' in October far exceeds expectations, marking the largest increase since July last year; Google rose nearly 7% in pre-market trading, benefiting from cloud business growth and exceeding expectations for Q3 performa
USA's actual GDP for the third quarter grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, driven by business and household consumer spending; New Bond King: US economic data is being "manipulated," firmly believes interest rates are bottoming out; Eli Lilly and Co. stock fell by 10% pre-market, with third-quarter revenue increasing by 20% year-on-year, falling short of expectations.
New bond king: Expectations for the Federal Reserve have never been so turbulent! usa economic data is being 'manipulated', firmly believing that interest rates are quietly bottoming out.
Gornlak believes that if the USA debt crisis erupts, the government may take extreme measures, leading to drastic fluctuations in the long-term US bond prices. He is concerned that the USA will experience a situation similar to the sharp rise in UK government bond yields three years ago. Gornlak predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once within the remaining time this year, and hold an optimistic attitude towards next year's inflation rate.
Options Daily Tracking | AMD overnight call options money surged 6 times! But pre-market stock price dropped more than 8%; as the election nears! Big players are betting on increased volatility in DJT.
SoFi Technologies fell more than 6% overnight, options volume surged to 1.04 million contracts, more than four times the daily average volume, call proportion remained unchanged from the previous day at 68%.
Economists: The Federal Reserve has not yet tamed inflation.
Economists point out that the Federal Reserve should maintain caution regarding inflation, and Federal policymakers should acknowledge their mistakes, otherwise they may repeat the same mistakes.
Bearish sentiment is strong on US bonds, with the options market already betting on the yield of the 10-year US bonds rising to 4.5%.
As the USA presidential election approaches, market expectations are that regardless of the election results, the USA's budget deficit will remain at a high level. In addition, media analysis suggests that in the short term, US bond auctions will not decrease because it is almost certain that the US government will maintain record-level debt sales in the next three months.