The Japanese economy is experiencing a "dual situation of ice and fire"! Manufacturing continues to shrink, while the service industry rises against the trend.
Japan's economy continued to see a contraction in manufacturing activity in December, entering its sixth month of contraction, while the services sector maintained a growth trend.
Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan will "hold steady" next week, and Bank of America expects the interest rate hike may be postponed until March next year.
Five sources familiar with the thoughts of the Bank of Japan stated that the Bank is inclined to keep interest rates unchanged next week. However, Bank of America warned that if the Bank of Japan continues to delay interest rate hikes until March next year, the yen could depreciate again to 155 or slightly below the 157 level reached in November.
Yen surges! Has the Bank of Japan decided not to raise interest rates?
Officials from the Bank of Japan believe that there is almost no cost in waiting for the next rate hike, and the yen plummeted upon hearing this.....
Is an interest rate hike being hinted at? The Bank of Japan has unusually scheduled a speech and press conference for January.
Analysis suggests that regional speeches generally provide council members with more freedom to express their views on mmf policy, and also give central banks the opportunity to allow market participants to adjust their expectations. An increasing number of economists expect that the central bank will raise interest rates at the January meeting.
Japan's basic salary increase in October reached a record high, creating conditions for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
Japan's official employees' basic wage increase hit a record high, further indicating that the Japanese economy is moving towards a positive cyclical development, which will support market speculation on the recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
Raising the income tax threshold, japan once again proposed a large-scale stimulus plan, and the market is increasingly believing in a rate hike in December.
Japan's individual income tax threshold will be significantly raised from the current $6,640 to $11,500. Analysts believe that this measure will inject more disposable income into the Japanese economy, easing long-term pressures such as population decline and aging. However, there are also opponents who believe that this is a reckless fiscal expansion, which may exacerbate income inequality, lead to rapid inflation, and possibly pave the way for a rate hike in December.