Is a 5% 10-year t-note not far away?
Trump is about to return to the White House, greatly disrupting the outlook for US debt, tax cuts and high tariffs as well as fiscal plans will push up US bond yields, eventually the 10-year yield may rise to 5%.
Futu Express | Latest Wall Street Consensus: Trump 2.0 era, Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts; blowing up the 'shorts'! Tesla surged nearly 30% in a week, with the market cap returning to one trillion US dollars.
A historic moment! Bitcoin reaches $0.08 million, BlackRock Bitcoin Fund surpasses its flagship gold fund; Trump reiterates his refusal to sell stocks, DJT stock price soars 15% upon hearing the news; Jinglin's Q3 positions revealed: selling Microsoft, Nvidia, and adding 0.59 million shares of Apple.
The US bond market experienced a volatile week after Trump's victory, and the future trend still remains uncertain.
Trump's proposed policies are expected to stimulate economic growth prospects, prompting traders to lower their expectations for the extent of the Fed's interest rate cut next year, dispelling hopes of a rise in US bonds as the Fed drastically eases policy.
Fed's Kashkari: Inflation risks still exist in the usa, may cut rates again in December.
There may be another interest rate cut in December.
One week preview | USA CPI, PPI data is coming! Powell and a group of Fed officials will speak intensively; The Chinese concept stock earnings season opens! Tencent, Alibaba performance will be announced soon.
China's financial data such as social zero, social financing, etc. will be released this week. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation; after the US election, the Bank of Japan will announce a summary of opinions from the October monetary policy meeting on Monday.
The latest consensus on Wall Street: The Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the 'Trump 2.0 era'.
Given that Trump's promised tariff increases and tax reduction policies are expected to bring upward pressure on inflation, Wall Street predicts that the Fed may proceed more cautiously, slow down rate cuts, and may even "pause rate cuts" in December.