The CPI "appetizer" is here! The leading Indicator PPI will be announced tonight.
The market focus has shifted to inflation data, but strong non-farm payrolls may strengthen the market's ability to withstand high inflation. How will Gold respond?
What is the likelihood of the USA declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs?
CITIC SEC believes that Trump may threaten other countries by declaring a national emergency to push the USA towards achieving its political goals, but the probability of this initiative being implemented is relatively low.
Finally, a major institution has stated: interest rate cuts will be a matter for 2024, and now the discussion should focus on "what might cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates?"
Bank of America believes that the latest non-farm payroll data indicates that the employment stabilization goal has been achieved, making further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve unnecessary. If the year-on-year growth rate of the core PCE price Index exceeds 3% and long-term inflation expectations become uncontrolled, it will lay the foundation for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate hike.
Goldman Sachs: The California wildfires will have a "moderate drag" on January's non-farm payrolls.
The Goldman Sachs economists expect that the wildfires in California will drag down the USA's non-farm payroll data for January and the GDP for the first quarter.
It is 2025, and this is the Federal Reserve's latest "hawk-dove distribution", showing significant internal divergence.
According to the updated "dove-hawk distribution" chart, the policy inclination of the voting committee in 2025 is similar to that in 2024, with an average score close to neutral policy. However, in 2025, the score differences among committee members are greater than last year. Analysis suggests that this significant divergence in policy inclination may lead to more disagreements within the 2025 committee, especially in light of the changes in trade and immigration policies following Trump's administration, which could have a major impact on the USA supply chain.
Will the US stock market change? The world's largest public Fund: only recommends allocating 38% of the investment portfolio to the stock market.
① The world's largest mutual fund, Vanguard, recently advised that in the face of rising stock prices and the increasingly unlikely expectation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, people should adopt a defensive strategy focused on Bonds. ② Vanguard released a key model that currently calls for financial advisors and certain wealthy individual investors to allocate 38% of their portfolios to Stocks, with the remainder allocated to fixed income Assets.