The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path has changed! Wall Street is beginning to discuss whether to pause rate cuts or not cut at all.
A "surprising" non-farm payroll report caused a sudden change in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path.
Will there be a major turnaround? Wall Street's two major investment banks are focusing on "the end of January to February."
Bank of America believes that the decline in the US stock market will force the Trump administration to make concessions on tariffs, and February or March will be a good time to start investing in US bonds and the stock markets of China, the United Kingdom, and Emerging Markets. JPMorgan stated that as Trump's policy towards China and China's responses become clearer, the Chinese stock market is expected to see a reversal around the end of January.
The U.S. stock market has "returned to the state before the election overnight". What comes next?
Some Analysts are concerned that US Treasury yields may continue to soar. On the other hand, inflation in the USA exceeding expectations might lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts or even raise rates, further impacting the US stock market.
What will happen on the first day of Trump's presidency?
Over the weekend, multiple significant pieces of news about Trump were reported!
Has the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle possibly ended.
In December, the non-farm payroll employment in the USA exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was also lower than expected. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" commented that the employment report shuts the door on a rate cut in January.
Liquidity "stress test": When will the Federal Reserve end the reduction of its balance sheet?
SWHY believes that the "normalization" of the Federal Reserve's unconventional MMF policy has a certain order, but it cannot be mechanically referenced to historical experience, as the opening of the interest rate cut cycle does not necessarily mean that the end of balance sheet reduction is just around the corner. The guiding principle for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is to change the state of reserve supply from "excess" to "adequate," which means that it should end the reduction before reaching a "shortage."