A visual overview of the Trump 2.0 policy timeline! What investment opportunities are worth paying attention to?
Analysis indicates that Trump 2.0's policy may still be within the framework of 1.0, but the pace may accelerate, and domestic and foreign policies may become more assertive. Trump may be more firm in practicing the "America First" principle, implementing tougher immigration and trade policies.
The Federal Reserve's relief plan during the pandemic is now becoming a burden for companies, with a wave of loan defaults beginning to appear.
According to media reports, although most of the total loan amount of $17.5 billion for the 'Ordinary Business Loan Program' has been repaid, as of October 31 of this year, there are still $1.23 billion in interest and principal in default. The government regulatory agency responsible for overseeing the program expects that borrowing enterprises still face two major challenges, including a massive one-time repayment of up to 70% due next year and high interest rates, leading to a significant increase in the default rate.
Beware of the debt storm! The number one financial stability risk in the Federal Reserve survey is now "it"...
The semi-annual financial stability report released by the Federal Reserve on that day showed that concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal debt topped the list in this survey, followed by escalating tensions in the Middle East and policy uncertainty. This survey was conducted by New York Fed staff between the end of August and the end of October, with respondents including professionals from brokerage firms, funds, consulting companies, institutions, and academia.
The core logic behind the rise of the US stock market: the market bets that Trump will not allow the stock market to fall!
The U.S. stock market expects that after Trump takes office, he will introduce a series of bullish policies, including significant reductions in corporate tax rates and relaxing financial regulations, which further strengthens the market influence of the "Trump put options."
The Federal Reserve: The sustainability of usa debt has risen to the number one financial stability risk, inflation threats are declining, on par with the trade war.
According to the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report, the survey found that more than half of the financial professionals interviewed believe that the sustainability of government debt is a prominent financial stability risk in the next 12 to 18 months, an increase of 14 percentage points compared to the last survey. The percentage of those who believe persistent inflation is a significant risk has halved to 33%. Respondents in this survey also specifically mentioned global trade risks, which did not make it onto the important risk list in the last report. Update.
Welcoming the strongest seasonal increase of the year! Goldman Sachs capital flow experts: I ordered a "S&P 7000 points" hat.
Goldman Sachs expert Rubner stated that in the U.S. election years since 1928, the rebound of the U.S. stock market typically lasts until early January of the following year and then fades before the presidential inauguration day.