Tonight's non-farm payroll report is coming! Signals of a slowdown in employment growth have emerged, and the health status of the labor market will soon be revealed.
With the recent continuous rise in the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields, the market is highly focused on the upcoming US non-farm employment data for December, which will be announced at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday.
Quietly, the Federal Reserve has given more attention to this "new" inflation Indicators.
Including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, senior officials of the Federal Reserve are increasingly focusing on a lesser-known inflation Index—the market-based version of the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index, which excludes a range of service industry data that its collectors cannot measure directly and must estimate. Currently, this Index is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, potentially indicating that the threshold for further interest rate cuts is lower than the market anticipates.
The outlook for Trump's policies is uncertain, the Federal Reserve is cautious, and this year the voting committee unanimously supports gradual interest rate cuts.
This year, the voting member and President of the Boston Federal Reserve, Collins, stated that the economic outlook is very uncertain, and requires a gradual and patient approach to interest rate cuts, expecting the number of cuts this year to be reduced to two from previous expectations; another voting member this year, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Schmidt, stated that if economic data improves, it supports gradual rate cuts; the Federal Reserve is close to the neutral interest rate, nearly achieving the dual mandate of inflation and employment, and further balance sheet reduction is needed; the 2026 voting member, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated support for further rate cuts this year, but the timing depends on the data, and action should be paused for now; the 2027 voting member, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, stated that it is the term premium, not inflation, that drives up long-term interest rates.
A 180-degree turn! Goldman Sachs' latest warning: U.S. stocks are priced too "perfectly," and a correction is imminent.
Goldman Sachs issued a new warning on Thursday (January 9): As investors digest the rising Bonds yields, overvalued valuations, and the uncertainty of further interest rate cuts, the current perfect money-making market environment may be difficult to sustain.
Minister Ma candidly stated that reducing federal spending by 2 trillion is an overly idealistic goal.
① Musk stated that the proposed "Department of Government Efficiency" in the USA may not be able to achieve its preset highest goal of cutting federal government spending by 2 trillion dollars; ② Musk emphasized in an exclusive interview that this is not an admission of failure in advance, and he can still help Trump achieve "epic results."
Fed's Harker: Fed Still on Rate-cut Path, Future Moves Driven by Data