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MOP/USD News
Express News | Will the Fed change its pace of interest rate cuts?
Express News | Fed's Kashkari: Strong economy could mean fewer rate cuts.
Under the framework of the Federal Reserve, the rate-cutting cycle has not changed: implying potential risks remain.
Based on the statement of this monetary policy meeting and Powell's remarks at the press conference, the incremental information conveyed seems rather limited. The Fed appears to be actively avoiding providing any clear signals regarding the forward guidance of interest rate paths, continuing to emphasize that they have not set any pre-set course and will adhere to the data-dependent decision-making model they have always followed.
Wall Street's latest consensus: In the Trump 2.0 era, the Federal Reserve may slow down its rate cuts.
①After the results of the usa election were released, Wall Street in the usa became increasingly concerned about the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year; ②On Thursday Eastern Time, following a statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, many investment banks gave up hope for a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year.
The Fed paused rate cuts as betting on rate hikes heats up! Traders expect an 80% probability of a pause in January next year, with Goldman Sachs expecting a slowdown in rate cuts.
Cme tools show that the probability of pausing rate cuts in December is about 35% in the futures market this Friday, and the probability of pausing in January next year is about 78%. The probabilities announced by the Federal Reserve before the rate cuts on Thursday are 33% and 67% respectively. Goldman Sachs currently predicts rate cuts of 25 basis points in June and September next year, compared to the previous forecast of May and June.
Express News | Institutions: The Fed's rate cut may stimulate post-sale leaseback transactions.
USA consumer confidence hits a seven-month high, while short-term inflation expectations fall to nearly a four-year low.
Americans are optimistic about the cooling of short-term inflation, and are more optimistic about the future prospects of the US economy and personal finances. Fueled by this sentiment, consumer confidence in the usa rose to a seven-month high in early November, better than expected. The survey took place on the eve of the US election, during which confidence among Democrats increased.
Will the interest rate be cut by 25 basis points next month? Analyst: No one can say for sure what the next move by the Federal Reserve will be.
The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, but there is more uncertainty about the speed of future rate cuts, and the market has reduced bets on another rate cut in December. Based on current observations, the dot plot forecast for September seems to have become a 'joke'.
Express News | Analyst: Powell's speech reinforced the logic of a rate cut in December.
Fed: Staying on Rate Cut Path With 25-bps Move and Political Defiance – UOB Group
Trump 'overwhelms' the Federal Reserve! Is the prospect of a $28 trillion market rebound shattered?
Investors should be cautious? Blackrock warns: Assuming the Federal Reserve will substantially cut interest rates in 2025 is like 'giving away money'.
ING International: US Dollar gives back gains after election, market focuses on returning to macroeconomics.
Gelonghui November 8th | Netherlands International stated that a large part of the US dollar's appreciation after Trump won the presidential election has been given back.
How Strong Will the Trump Dollar Be? – Commerzbank
Dalio: Risks reduced, all Americans should be satisfied with the election results!
Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio said, "We will have an orderly transfer of power. This significantly reduces the risk."
Not Much News From the Fed – Commerzbank
Fed Meeting Summary: Wall Street Reacts to a Quarter-point Rate Cut
U.S. Real Yield Moves Key For Dollar -- Market Talk
US, UK and Sweden Pile on Rate Cuts
Ambon: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter next year.
Gelonghui November 8th | Deputy Chief Economist James McCann of Ambon expects that if future US economic data meets expectations, the signal will still support another interest rate cut in December. Although the Fed has not committed to a rate cut in December, it has not countered the market's expectations of a 25 basis point cut. The bank currently predicts that the Fed will pause its rate cuts in January next year, with a gradual pace of reducing by 25 basis points each quarter in the whole of 2025. However, if Trump implements a series of policies after taking office as president that may exacerbate inflation, he expects the risks to lean towards slowing down or reducing loose policies. He believes that the Fed
Express News | Nordea Bank: It is now expected that the terminal interest rate of the Federal Reserve will be between 3.25% and 3.50%.